Markets Steady Ahead of NonFarm Payroll.

Most of the asset classes were muted ahead of the Nonfarm Payroll report which will be released today; Markets seemed confused and contradictory between asset classes with the backdrop of high inflation and recession fears. Assets class, including equity markets, the U.S. dollar, gold, stayed flat on Thursday amid directionless trading. On the other hand, oil prices are able to sustain above $80 after a surprise supply cut and drop in U.S. crude inventories; Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is raising selling prices to Asia amid China’s growing fuel demand since its economy is recovering. In Japan, workers’ real wages fell for the 11th straight month despite the fact that the country has experienced growth in wages; solid pay is a requirement for sustainable inflation and must be achieved before BoJ ends its ultra-easing monetary policy. 

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Current rate hike bets on 3rd May Fed interest rate decision: 

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (48.9%) VS 25 bps (51.1%)25 bps (43.9%) 

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Market Overview

Economic Calendar

Market Movements

DXY, H4

The Dollar Index continues to trade in negative trajectory over the backdrop against downbeat economic data. The latest figures from the US labour market suggest that the jobs market is slowing, with annual revisions to the data indicating that jobless applications were higher than initially estimated. While initial jobless claims fell by 17,000 to reach a seasonally adjusted figure of 228,000 for the week ending in April, this reading still fell short of market expectations of 200,000 claims. All eyes are now firmly fixed on the imminent release of the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payroll and Unemployment rate data, which is set to be unveiled later today.

The Dollar Index is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 46, suggesting the index might be traded lower as the RSI stays below the midline.   

Resistance level: 101.95, 102.90

Support level: 100.85, 100.15

XAU/USD, H1

Gold prices continue to hover near its high level, fuelled by a combination of factors such as a sluggish job market and the weakening of the US Dollar. These concerns have led investors to seek refuge in gold, which is considered a safe-haven asset. With the eagerly anticipated release of the US Nonfarm Payroll and Unemployment rate data, investors are likely to remain cautious, as these indicators have the potential to impact the market significantly. Investors should keep a close eye on the US economic development to gauge the likelihood trend for the safe-haven gold in future. 

Gold prices are trading flat while currently near the support level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 42, suggesting the commodity might be traded higher since the RSI rebounded sharply from its oversold territory.  

Resistance level: 2025.00, 2045.00

Support level: 2000.00, 1970.00

EUR/USD，H4

The indicators show the bullish momentum for the pair is slowing down with the RSI hovering in between 50 levels while the MACD is moving toward the zero line from above slowly. 

The Euro retraced before it was able to break its psychological resistance at 1.1000 as the dollar had a technical rebound. The price movement for the pair is relatively narrow before the release of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) later today. Those previously released U.S. economic data showed the U.S. has the likelihood of a recession; a weaker-than-expected NFP may increase the chance that the Fed may consider pausing its monetary tightening program and further weaken the dollar. In contrast, the economy in the Euro is expected to avoid a recession and the possibility for the ECB to continue in raising interest rates is still high. 

Resistance level: 1.0965, 1.1055

Support level: 1.0910, 1.0796

NAS100, H4

The Nasdaq Index rose 0.76% to 12087 points on Thursday as investors eye on the upcoming job report. The index was lifted by Alphabet (GOOGL.O)shares, 3.8% and Microsoft (MSFT.O) climbed 2.6%, with both providing more fuel than any other stocks. According to Wall Street Journal, alphabet’s Google unit plans to add artificial intelligence features to its search engine. The market now is in a decisive move whether the growth and recession fear or the Fed hiking scare is more meaningful to prices. It is waffling between whether a softening labour market is good news because it gets the Fed to pause in May or bad news because it means the recession is actually coming. Investors are now focused on the more significant report on non-farm payroll due today. 

Hence, fear of a recession is the dominant theme in the market now. MACD has illustrated bullish momentum. However, RSI is at 58,  indicating a neutral-bullish momentum. 

Resistance level: 12278，13013

Support level: 11993，10778

GBP/USD, H4

The pound has little changes in thin trading on Thursday ahead of a three-day weekend. Moreover, UK’s construction PMI data declined to 50.7 in March from 54.6 in February. It negatively impacts the pound, but the pair still holds despite the data providing a negative reading. Most investors are also awaiting the crucial job report, which will be released later today to signal the future trading outlook. Data will be giving more clues on Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting. 

Furthermore, the overall outlook for the pound remains stable, as many traders estimate that April is a historically strong month for the pair. A little decline in the price can be considered a technical correction. MACD remains above the zero line, which indicates bullish momentum. RSI is at 53, indicating a neutral-bullish momentum ahead. 

Resistance level: 1.2613, 1.2740

Support level: 1.2425, 1.2298

Dow Jones, H4

The Dow continues its ascent, propelled by the recent decline of Treasury yields, as the gloomy economic outlook weighs on Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. The US Department of Labor reported that US Initial jobless claims fell by 17,000 to reach a seasonally adjusted figure of 228,000 for the week ending in April, this reading still fell short of market expectations of 200,000 claims. Amidst the anticipation of the Easter Bank holidays, global financial markets are experiencing a period of subdued activity, as investors prepare for several major financial markets to close their doors. As a result, trading volumes remain low across the board.

The Dow is trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum while RSI is at 67, suggesting the index might enter overbought territory. 

Resistance level: 34310.00, 35640.00

Support level: 32875.00, 31600.00

CL OIL, H4

Oil prices experienced a relatively stable day, yet still managed to clinch their third consecutive weekly gain. As investors weighed up the prospect of further production cuts by OPEC+ and a decline in US oil inventories against the backdrop of global economic uncertainty, the markets remained cautiously optimistic. Adding to the bullish sentiment, the latest data revealed a steeper-than-expected drop in US crude inventories, marking the second consecutive weekly drawdown. Additionally, gasoline and distillate inventories declined, indicating a potentially positive outlook for oil demand. Meanwhile, US energy firms have reduced the number of oil rigs for the second week in a row, according to data from Baker Hughes. This early indicator of future output dropped two to 590 this week.

Crude oil prices are trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum. However, RSI is at 64, suggesting the commodity might enter overbought territory.   

Resistance level: 81.05, 85.45

Support level: 77.25, 73.80