Scarica l'app

  • Approfondimenti di mercato > Analisi di mercato giornaliera

29 Dicembre 2024,23:43

Analisi di mercato giornaliera

Lettura dell'IPC debole, rafforza il taglio dei tassi della Fed

29 Dicembre 2024, 23:43

Condividi su:
FacebookLinkedInTwitterShare
Condividi su:
FacebookLinkedInTwitterShare

Sintesi del mercato

Yesterday’s US CPI report, which aligned with market expectations, strengthened market bets on a December Fed rate cut. The dovish Fed outlook pressured the dollar, which struggled to hold recent highs. Wall Street rallied on the news, anticipating lower borrowing costs.

In the commodity market, Safe-haven gold benefited from the weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, trading above $2700. Traders are monitoring developments in the region, which could further boost gold prices. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed to a weekly high as the Biden administration considers additional sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, potentially disrupting global supply.

In today’s Sydney session, the Australian dollar surged on better-than-expected domestic job data. Meanwhile, the euro is under pressure ahead of today’s ECB meeting, where a 25bps rate cut is widely anticipated.

In addition, Bitcoin rallied above $100K in yesterday’s session, benefiting from increased expectations of a Fed rate cut. The cryptocurrency had briefly pulled back in previous sessions.


Le attuali scommesse sul rialzo dei tassi 18 dicembre Decisione sui tassi di interesse della Fed

Fonte: Strumento Fedwatch del CME

0 bps (18%) VS -25 bps (82%) 

Panoramica del mercato

Calendario economico

(Tempo del sistema MT4)

Fonte: MQL5 

Movimenti di mercato

DOLLARO_INDICE, H4

The US Dollar Index remained relatively unchanged following the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The in-line CPI data reinforced market expectations for a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming week. The lack of surprising data had prompted investors to maintain their wait-and-see mood, and the dollar went flat. 

The Dollar Index is trading flat while currently testing the resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 57, suggesting the index might experience technical correction since the RSI retreated from overbought territory. 

Resistance level: 106.75, 107.60

Support level: 105.70, 104.55


XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices continued to rise, primarily due to the anticipated Fed rate cut and increased geopolitical tensions, including those in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. The lack of surprising developments in the US CPI report further shifted investor focus towards the potential for a rate cut, bolstering gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Gold prices are trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 72, suggesting the commodity might enter overbought territory. 

Resistance level: 2720.00, 2755.00

Support level: 2655.00, 2615.00


GBP/USD,H4

The GBP/USD pair has broken below its uptrend channel, forming a lower-high price pattern, suggesting a bearish bias. While the recent easing of US dollar strength following the CPI report and expectations of a December rate cut supported the pair, a weaker-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims report due today could further pressure the pair towards its next short-term resistance level at 1.2720.

GBP/USD has been gradually forming a lower-high price pattern, a break below from its short-term support level shall be a bearish signal for the pair. The RSI is on the brink of breaking below the 50 level while the MACD is edging lower, suggesting that the bullish momentum is vanishing. 

Livello di resistenza: 1,2790, 1,2850

Support level: 1.2700, 1.2620


EUR/USD,H4

The EUR/USD has fallen to a one-week low as the euro weakens on dovish ECB expectations. The ECB’s interest rate decision is due today, with the market anticipating a 25 bps rate cut. The pair is nearing its critical short-term support level of 1.0472. A break below this level would signal a bearish trend for the pair.

The EUR/USD pair has shifted in momentum, with the bearish momentum gaining. The pair is trading with a lower-high and lower-low price pattern while both the RSI and MACD have been edging lower, suggesting a bearish bias for the pair. 

Resistance level: 1.0525, 1.0607

Livello di supporto: 1,0440, 1,0324


AUD/USD, H4

The Australian dollar surged over 0.6% after a surprisingly strong jobs report released in Sydney today. Employment increased by 35.6k, significantly higher than the previous month’s 12.2k. Additionally, the unemployment rate declined to 3.9% from 4.1%, bolstering expectations of a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stance to combat inflation.

AUD/USD jumped from its recent low level but has yet to reach its previous high and form a trend-reversal signal for the pair. The RSI remains below the 50 level while the MACD stays at the bottom, suggesting that the pair will continue trading with bearish momentum. 

Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6550

Livello di supporto: 0,6345, 0,6275


NASDAQ, H4

The US equity market, particularly the Nasdaq, experienced significant gains, driven by the technology sector. This surge was primarily attributed to the in-line CPI data, which strengthened expectations for a Fed rate cut. Key tech companies such as Google and NVIDIA led the rally. Additionally, Alphabet’s recent quantum computing breakthrough and Tesla’s post-election optimism contributed to the market’s positive sentiment.

Nasdaq is trading higher while currently near the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum. However, RSI is at 71, suggesting the index might enter overbought territory. 

Resistance level: 21955.00, 22000.00

Support level:  21170.00, 20395.00


BTC/USD H4:

Bitcoin surged nearly 5% yesterday, reclaiming the $100K level and signaling a bullish trend. The cryptocurrency’s rally was primarily fueled by the tepid US inflation data released yesterday, which reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut. The dovish Fed outlook positively impacted the broader risk-on market, including cryptocurrencies.

BTC jumped sharply to above its psychological resistance level at $100k mark, suggesting a bullish bias for BTC. The RSI is moving higher while the MACD has a golden cross and is breaking above the zero line, suggesting the bullish momentum is gaining. 

Resistance level: 102000.00, 107700.00

Support level: 96800.00, 92330.00


OLIO CL, H4

Oil prices increased significantly following the EU’s decision to impose additional sanctions on Russian oil. This move could potentially tighten global crude supplies. Furthermore, China’s announcement of a more accommodative monetary policy in 2025, coupled with increased crude oil imports, also supported oil prices.

Oil prices are trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 69, suggesting the commodity might extend its gains since the RSI stays above the midline. 

Resistance level: 70.35, 72.35

Support level: 68.15, 66.95


Inizia a Fare Trading con un Vantaggio

Scambia forex, indici, metalli e altro ancora a spread bassi e con un'esecuzione fulminea.

  • Inizia a fare trading con depositi a partire da $50 sui nostri conti standard.
  • Ottieni accesso all'assistenza 24/7
  • Accedi a centinaia di strumenti, a strumenti didattici gratuiti e ad alcune delle migliori promozioni in circolazione.
Iscriviti Ora

Ultimi messaggi

Apertura del conto semplice e veloce

Apri Conto Reale
  • 1

    Registrazione

    Registrati per un Conto Reale PU Prime con la nostra semplice procedura.

  • 2

    Finanzia

    Finanzia senza fatica il tuo conto con un'ampia gamma di canali e valute accettate.

  • 3

    Inizia a Fare Trading

    Accedi a centinaia di strumenti a condizioni di trading leader del mercato.

Il Sito è destinato a persone residenti in giurisdizioni in cui l'accesso al Sito è consentito dalla legge.

Si prega di notare che PU Prime e le sue entità affiliate non hanno sede né operano nella giurisdizione del vostro paese.

Facendo clic sul pulsante "Riconosci", l'utente conferma di essere entrato in questo sito web esclusivamente su sua iniziativa e non come risultato di una specifica attività di marketing. Desiderate ottenere informazioni da questo sito web che sono fornite su sollecitazione inversa in conformità con le leggi della vostra giurisdizione.

Grazie per il vostro riconoscimento!

Tenete presente che il sito web è destinato a persone che risiedono in giurisdizioni in cui l'accesso al sito web è consentito dalla legge.

Tieni presente che PU Prime e le sue entità affiliate non sono stabilite né operano nella tua giurisdizione di origine.

Facendo clic sul pulsante "Accetta", si conferma che si sta accedendo a questo sito web per iniziativa propria e non come risultato di alcuno sforzo di marketing specifico. Desideri ottenere informazioni da questo sito web che ti vengono fornite tramite una richiesta inversa in conformità con le leggi della tua giurisdizione di origine.

Grazie per il vostro riconoscimento!