L'acuirsi delle tensioni geopolitiche si ripercuote su Wall Street

Sintesi del mercato

Wall Street was hit hard by the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Israel and Hezbollah exchanging heavy fire. The Dow Jones led the decline, closing around 400 points lower, marking a nearly 2% drop from its all-time peak. As earnings season progresses, market participants are bracing for volatile price action in the near term, driven by both geopolitical uncertainties and corporate earnings.

In the commodity markets, oil prices surged due to the unrest in the Middle East, with WTI crude holding steady above the $71.00 mark. In contrast, gold prices fell by more than 1% from their record high, driven by a wave of profit-taking. This selling spree could push the precious metal down toward the $2700 mark before it regains its bullish momentum.

In the forex market, the U.S. dollar remains one of the strongest currencies, supported by rising long-term treasury yields. Meanwhile, the yen continues to weaken, weighed down by disappointing Japanese economic data. The USD/JPY pair briefly touched the 153 mark, as poor economic indicators leave the Bank of Japan in a dilemma regarding its rate hike strategy.

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Le attuali scommesse sul rialzo dei tassi 7th November Fed interest rate decision: 

Fonte: Strumento Fedwatch del CME

-50 bps (7%) VS -25 bps (93%) 

Panoramica del mercato

Calendario economico

(Tempo del sistema MT4)

Fonte: MQL5 

Movimenti di mercato

DOLLARO_INDICE, H4

The Dollar index, which trades against a basket of six major currencies, continued to extend its gains, supported by rising U.S. Treasury yields and signs of economic recovery in the U.S. region. Recent comments from Fed officials suggest a more cautious approach to cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, the U.S. Beige Book, released yesterday, indicated an uptick in hiring, reinforcing expectations for a slight easing in Fed monetary policy.

The Dollar Index is trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 74, suggesting the index might enter overbought territory. 

Resistance level: 104.95, 105.55

Support level: 103.95, 103.25

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XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices tumbled as U.S. Treasury yields edged higher, driven by hawkish remarks from several Federal Reserve members, indicating a less aggressive monetary policy approach. The U.S. Beige Book also showed continued positive economic growth, pushing yields higher and weighing on gold prices. However, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, as Middle East tensions and U.S. election uncertainties could trigger further market volatility.

Gold prices are trading higher following the prior rebound from the support level. MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 45, suggesting the commodity might extend its gains since the RSI rebounded sharply from oversold territory. 

Resistance level: 2735.00, 2770.00

Support level: 2705.00, 2685.00

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GBP/USD，H4

The GBP/USD pair fell to a new low, hitting the 1.2915 mark for the first time in recent sessions, signalling a clear bearish bias. The pair faced pressure from the strengthening U.S. dollar, as markets anticipate that the Fed may maintain its current stance on monetary policy ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. This perception of a potential delay in monetary easing continues to bolster the dollar’s momentum. Traders are advised to closely watch today’s U.S. job data, as it will be crucial in determining the dollar’s direction and providing further insight into the strength of the U.S. economy. 

GBP/USD continues to edge lower after the pair failed to defend its crucial support level at 1.3000, suggesting a bearish bias for the pair. The RSI remains close to the oversold zone, while the MACD fails to break above the zero line, suggesting that bearish momentum is gaining. 

Resistance level: 1.2980, 1.3065

Support level: 1.2850, 1.2780

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EUR/USD，H4

The EUR/USD pair has once again broken below a key support level, reinforcing a bearish bias. The euro remains under pressure from the downbeat CPI reading, which has raised concerns within the ECB. In her recent speech, ECB Chief Christine Lagarde struck a dovish tone, signalling that the central bank may become more aggressive in cutting interest rates to stimulate the region’s sluggish economy. In contrast, the U.S. dollar continues to exhibit strength, supported by geopolitical tensions and the approaching U.S. presidential election. These factors are expected to exert additional downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair, potentially leading to further declines.

EUR/USD remains trading in a lower-low price pattern, suggesting a bearish bias for the pair. They remain close to the oversold zone, while the MACD is hovering below the zero line, suggesting the pair remains trading with bearish momentum. 

Resistance level: 1.0815, 1.0890

Support level: 1.0735, 1.0675

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USD/CAD, H4

The Canadian dollar remained largely unchanged following the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%. This move aligned with market expectations, leading to little movement in the currency. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) stated that economic growth in Canada is in line with forecasts, leaving future policy decisions data-dependent. Investors should continue monitoring Canada’s economic performance for further insights.

USD/CAD is trading flat while currently near the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 56, suggesting the pair might edge lower since the RSI retreated sharply from overbought territory. 

Resistance level:1.3885, 1.3965

Support level:  1.3810, 1.3750

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Nasdaq, H4

The U.S. equity market was pressured by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to a notable decline in the Nasdaq, which dropped by nearly 300 points in the last session. The tech-heavy index has broken down from its ascending triangle pattern, indicating a potential bearish bias. This technical breakdown, combined with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, suggests that further downside risk may persist for the Nasdaq in the near term.

The index has broken below from the ascending triangle price pattern, suggesting a bearish signal for the index. The RSI has broken below the 50 level white, and the MACD is edging lower, suggesting the bullish momentum is easing. 

Resistance level: 21070.00, 22020.00

Support level: 19700.00, 19120.00

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USD/JPY, H4

The USD/JPY pair has broken above its uptrend channel, signalling that bullish momentum is gaining strength. The Japanese yen has been weighed down by weaker-than-expected economic data, including the Japan National CPI and PMI readings, both of which fell short of market expectations. Additionally, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent comments, which lacked clarity on the timing of the next rate hike, further hindered the yen’s strength. This indecision has contributed to the yen’s continued decline, allowing the USD/JPY pair to extend its upward trajectory.

The pair continues to trade on an uptrend basis, suggesting a bullish bias for the pair. The RSI has broken into the overbought zone while the MACD continues to edge higher suggesting the bullish momentum is gaining. 

Resistance level: 153.85, 155.00

Support level: 150.85, 149.40

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OLIO CL, H4

Crude oil prices rebounded, primarily due to technical corrections and bargain buying. Positive economic prospects from the U.S. also served as a catalyst for higher prices. Recent data showed that U.S. economic activity remained stable from September through early October, with firms reporting an uptick in hiring. Stronger-than-expected data on consumer spending, job gains, and inflation have also reduced investor bets on the pace and extent of future U.S. rate cuts.

Oil prices are trading higher following the prior rebound from the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 62, suggesting the commodity might extend its gains since the RSI stays above the midline. 

Resistance level: 72.60, 74.75

Support level: 70.95, 69.90

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