AUD Caught in Crossfire of Dovish RBA and Global Risks

19 June 2025, 10:56

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Key Takeaways:

*AUD weakens as dovish RBA stance and soft domestic jobs data dent investor confidence, leaving the Aussie vulnerable to further downside.

*Rising Middle East tensions and China growth concerns weigh on global risk appetite, pressuring AUD alongside broader risk-sensitive assets.

Market Summary:

The Australian Dollar has come under pressure this week, weighed down by a dovish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), weak domestic data, and broader risk-off sentiment driven by rising geopolitical tensions. Although the AUD typically benefits from strong Chinese demand and global growth optimism, recent developments have chipped away at investor confidence.

A key driver of the AUD’s softness has been the RBA’s decision to cut interest rates to 3.85% in June, with Governor Bullock signaling a gradual approach to further easing. This dovish stance stands in contrast to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s more cautious posture—holding rates steady at 4.5% and emphasizing a data-dependent approach. While markets continue to price in the likelihood of a Fed cut later this year, Chair Powell’s reluctance to commit to a timeline has limited U.S. dollar downside, leaving the Aussie exposed.

Adding to the AUD’s vulnerability was Australia’s disappointing May jobs report, which revealed a surprise net loss of 2.5K positions against expectations of a 25K gain. Although the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, the data raises fresh concerns about domestic economic momentum. At the same time, sentiment toward China—Australia’s largest trading partner—remains fragile amid signs of a stalling recovery in the Chinese property sector and only patchy stimulus results.

Geopolitical risks have further dampened risk appetite, with renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and Middle East instability prompting a flight to safety. The U.S. dollar benefited from this shift, pushing the DXY index closer to the 99.00 mark, while the risk-sensitive AUD struggled to attract support despite mixed U.S. and Chinese data.

For now, the Australian Dollar appears caught between competing forces—dovish RBA guidance and soft data weighing on it, while external risks and a firm U.S. dollar cap any upside. Unless risk sentiment improves materially or Chinese growth shows clearer signs of acceleration, the AUD is likely to remain under pressure in the near term.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD, H4

AUD/USD remains under pressure after breaking below the ascending trendline support, with recent price action signaling hesitation near the 0.6485 horizontal support zone. The failure to sustain gains above the 0.6525 region suggests a loss of bullish momentum, raising the risk of a deeper corrective move toward lower support levels around 0.6455.

Momentum indicators reinforce this shift in tone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped below the neutral 50 threshold, currently tracking around 45, signaling weakening bullish conviction and rising downside risk. Simultaneously, the MACD has completed a bearish crossover below the signal line, with both lines trending beneath the zero mark—indicative of fading upside momentum and growing bearish pressure.

Unless bulls reclaim the 0.6525 level and establish a firm footing above the broken trendline, AUD/USD remains vulnerable to further weakness, with next support eyed near 0.6455 and deeper potential toward 0.6410. Price behavior around current levels will be pivotal in determining whether this is a temporary pullback—or the start of a broader bearish shift.

Resistance Levels: 0.6525, 0.6570
Support Levels: 0.6485, 0.6455

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